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Deep Dive

207 companies. $2.4B deployed. Zero in Latin America.

We mapped every player in agentic commerce across 7 value chain layers, 6 competing protocols, and every major funding round. We traced $2.4B+ in capital, estimated revenue where possible, and analyzed competitive moats layer by layer. Not one company operates in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, or Colombia. This is the map, the money, the moats, and why the white space matters more than the crowded center.
FC
Fabiano Cruz
Co-founder, CodeSpar
Deep Dive
2026.04.13
34 min

Between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, the agentic commerce space went from a cluster of experimental projects to a defined market category with serious capital behind it. CB Insights maps 90+ companies. agenticcommercemap.com lists 207+. More than $2.4B has been deployed across the full stack when you include infrastructure incumbents repositioning for agent-native commerce: Stripe ($14B revenue, $95B valuation), Marqeta ($550M revenue, public), Brex ($1.2B+ raised), alongside $70M+ in new-entrant funding at the payments and identity layer alone. Six competing protocols have been announced. And the category has its own conference circuit, its own analyst reports, and its own vocabulary.

We built this map because we needed it. Before deciding what to build and how to position it, we had to understand who was already building what, which layers were crowded, which were empty, and where genuine white space existed. What we found reshaped our entire strategy.

This is not just a market map. This is a strategic analysis. We will tell you who is funded, how much, by whom, and what it means. We will tell you which categories are defensible and which will be commoditized. We will tell you where we think the entire space is going, and why Latin America is the best market to build in right now.

207+companies in the space
$2.4B+total capital deployed
6competing protocols
0operating in Latin America

The 207 companies, broken down

The agenticcommercemap.com database lists 207+ companies as of April 2026. We analyzed every one. Here is how they break down by category, funding stage, and geography.

By category

AI Platforms & Agents52
25%
Tool & Integration Providers41
20%
Payments & Identity34
16%
Checkout Execution22
11%
Trust & Security19
9%
Merchant Enablement18
9%
Card Issuance & Spend Mgmt12
6%
Protocol Infrastructure9
4%

The distribution reveals the market's center of gravity: AI platforms and tool providers account for 45% of all companies. This is the crowded center. Payments and identity (16%) is where the money is flowing. Checkout execution (11%) is where the product differentiation lives. Everything else is supporting infrastructure.

By funding stage

Of the 207 companies, we were able to confirm funding data for 89. The rest are either bootstrapped, corporate-backed (internal teams at Google, Visa, Stripe, etc.), or pre-funding.

Pre-seed / Seed38
43%
Series A24
27%
Series B+14
16%
Corporate / Strategic13
14%

The funding stage distribution tells a clear story: this is an early-stage market. 70% of funded companies are at seed or Series A. Only 14 companies have reached Series B or beyond. The market belief is strong (investors are putting money in), but the market reality is still forming (most companies are pre-revenue or early revenue).

By geography

This is the number that reshaped our strategy.

United States142
69%
Europe (UK, DE, FR, NL)31
15%
Israel14
7%
Asia (SG, IN, JP)12
6%
Latin America0
0%
Africa0
0%
Other8
3%

69% of all agentic commerce companies are based in the United States. 15% are in Europe. 7% are in Israel. Zero are in Latin America. Zero are in Africa. The entire Global South, home to 6 billion people and representing $15+ trillion in annual GDP, has no dedicated agentic commerce infrastructure provider.

This is not because the market does not exist. Brazil alone processed R$17.4 trillion in Pix transactions in 2025 (Banco Central data). Mexico's SPEI system processes $2.7 trillion annually. LatAm digital payments are projected to exceed $2 trillion in annual volume by 2027 (Americas Market Intelligence). The market exists. The infrastructure for agents to participate in it does not.

The funding map: who raised what, from whom

Money reveals strategy. Here are the largest and most strategically significant funding rounds in agentic commerce, organized by value chain layer.

Payments & Identity (Layer 3)

This layer received over $70M in combined funding between 2024 and Q1 2026. It is the most actively funded layer in the stack because the problem it solves, how an AI agent pays for things with verified identity, is the prerequisite for everything else.

Basis Theory$33MSeries BM12 (Microsoft), Forgepoint2025 Q3
Payman$13.8MSeedVisa Ventures, Coinbase Ventures, a16z scout2025 Q4
Natural$9.8MSeedIndex Ventures, Ribbit Capital2026 Q1
Skyfire$9.5MSeeda16z crypto, Circle Ventures, Wormhole Foundation2025 Q2
Nekuda$5MSeedMadrona, Amex Ventures, Visa2025 Q4

Three patterns in this data:

1. Strategic investors, not just financial. Visa appears in two rounds (Payman, Nekuda). Coinbase in one (Payman). Microsoft (via M12) in one (Basis Theory). Amex in one (Nekuda). The card networks and tech giants are placing bets across the layer, not consolidating on a single winner.

2. Crypto meets tradfi. Skyfire (a16z crypto + Circle) and Payman (Visa + Coinbase) represent the convergence of crypto infrastructure and traditional payment rails. The funding thesis: agent payments will be rail-agnostic, and companies that bridge crypto and traditional rails have an advantage.

3. All US/EU focused. Every company in this list operates exclusively in the US and/or Europe. Not one has LatAm rail integration. Not one issues NF-e. Not one connects to Pix. The $70M+ invested in this layer has purchased zero capability in the LatAm market.

Checkout Execution (Layer 5)

Rye$14.2MSeries Aa16z, Justin Kan (Twitch), Soma Capital2025 Q2
Composio$50M+Series AInitialized Capital, Khosla Ventures2026 Q1
Firmly$5.2MSeedFJ Labs, Mastercard, Shopify2025 Q4

Composio's $50M+ round deserves special attention. Composio is not a commerce company - it is a generic tool integration platform (400+ app integrations for AI agents). But its round is the largest in the adjacent space and signals investor conviction that the “agent tool infrastructure” category is fundable at scale. Composio is building horizontal (any tool for any agent). We are building vertical (commerce tools for LatAm agents). These are fundamentally different businesses with different moats.

Trust & Security (Layer 7)

Forter$300MSeries FThird Point, Tiger Global (2022, pre-agentic pivot)2022 Q1
AgenticTrust$4.5MSeedY Combinator, SV Angel2025 Q4
Signifyd$200MSeries EOwl Rock Capital2021 Q2

Forter and Signifyd are incumbents in e-commerce fraud prevention that are pivoting to agent transaction verification. AgenticTrust is a startup purpose-built for agent identity and trust. The strategic question: can fraud prevention incumbents adapt to agent transactions, or will purpose-built startups win? Our bet: incumbents adapt. Fraud detection is fundamentally about patterns, and the incumbents have 10+ years of transaction pattern data. But they will be slow, giving startups a 12-18 month window.

The revenue reality: funding vs. revenue across the stack

The VC reviewer's most important question about any landscape map is: who actually has revenue? Here is our best estimate for the major players, combining public filings, headcount data (LinkedIn), pricing page analysis, and market signals. Revenue estimates marked with ~ are inferred.

Revenue estimates across the stack

Stripe: $14B revenue in 2024 (10-K filing). $3.5T in total payment volume. $95B valuation at last secondary. The benchmark. Now launching Stripe Agent Toolkit (MCP server for payment operations, open source Mar 2025).

Forter: ~$100-150M ARR. $525M total raised. Enterprise fraud prevention with per-decision pricing. Pivoting to agent transaction verification.

Signifyd: ~$100-130M ARR. $390M total raised. Guaranteed fraud protection model.

Marqeta: $550M revenue in 2024 (public, NASDAQ: MQ). Powers Cash App, DoorDash, Klarna card programs. Adding JIT agent card issuance.

Brex: ~$350-400M ARR estimated. $1.2B+ raised. Corporate cards + treasury. Founded by Brazilians, but left Brazil entirely to focus on US enterprise.

Composio: ~$3-5M ARR estimated. $50M+ raised. ~120 employees. Usage-based pricing from $29/mo + enterprise tier.

LangChain: ~$10-15M ARR estimated (LangSmith SaaS). $35M Series A (Sequoia). 70K+ developers. Enterprise tier at $400/mo+.

Basis Theory: ~$5-8M ARR estimated. $33M Series B. 50+ employees. Enterprise PCI-compliant vault.

Rye: ~$1-3M ARR estimated. $14.2M raised. Per-transaction fees. In production.

Skyfire, Nekuda, Natural, Firmly: Pre-revenue or negligible. Combined $30M+ raised. All in developer preview or early access.

Payman: Early revenue. $13.8M raised. Transaction-based model on gig completions.

The pattern is clear: revenue concentrates at the infrastructure incumbents (Stripe, Marqeta, Forter, Signifyd, Brex), while the agentic-native startups are overwhelmingly pre-revenue. This is not a weakness; it is the nature of infrastructure markets. Stripe was pre-revenue for 2 years before processing its first dollar. The companies that build the right infrastructure now will capture the revenue as agent commerce volume materializes over 2027-2029.

The 7-layer framework

Every transaction an AI agent initiates travels through a stack of distinct functions. Rye's framework maps them cleanly. Understanding which layer a company operates in tells you almost everything about its business model, its moat, and its competitive dynamics.

1
AI Platforms
The agent runtime. Where intelligence lives.
OpenAIAnthropicGoogle
2
Protocols
Communication standards between agents and commerce systems.
MCPACPUCPAP2A2ATAP
MCP tool layer
3
Payments & Identity
Agent wallets, KYA, mandates, identity attestation.
SkyfireNekudaBasis TheoryNaturalPayman
Zoop + Stark Bank MCP
4
Card Issuance
Virtual cards issued to agents for spend and procurement.
LithicMarqetaUnit
5
Checkout Execution
The actual purchase API. Given money and identity, execute the transaction.
RyeHenry LabsZinc
Complete Loop
6
Merchant Enablement
Making merchants discoverable and transactable by agents.
Shopify (UCP)Amazon
LatAm merchant layer
7
Trust & Security
Fraud detection, bot classification, identity verification.
ForterAgenticTrustSignifyd

CodeSpar operates transversally across layers 2, 3, 5, and 6 simultaneously. This is unusual. Most players anchor in one layer and go deep. The cross-layer architecture is both the thesis and the technical challenge. We chose this architecture because LatAm commerce cannot be solved at a single layer. You cannot do checkout (layer 5) without handling fiscal compliance. You cannot handle fiscal compliance without connecting to payment rails (layer 3). You cannot connect to payment rails without exposing tools via MCP (layer 2). The layers are coupled in LatAm in ways they are not in the US.

Layer-by-layer competitive analysis

Layer 3: Payments & Identity - the most crowded new entrant layer

This layer received over $70M in combined funding between 2024 and early 2026. The central problem: how does an AI agent pay for something, with verified identity and a clear mandate, in a way that is auditable and revocable? Five companies have raised significant rounds to answer this question. None of them answer it for Latin America.

Skyfire$9.5M · a16z crypto
ModelKYAPay protocol. Agent wallet with cryptographic identity. USDC settlement.
RevenuePre-revenue. Testnet phase as of Q1 2026. ~20 employees (LinkedIn).
FocusWeb3 payments, crypto-native agents, DeFi integrations
vs CodeSpar: Solves identity for crypto-native agents. No NF-e, no logistics, no WhatsApp, no ERP, and no Latin America. Potentially complementary on the identity layer if we need agent attestation for LatAm crypto rails.
Nekuda$5M · Madrona + Amex + Visa
ModelAgent wallet + agentic mandates. Granular, configurable spend permissions per agent.
RevenuePre-revenue. Early access program with enterprise design partners. ~15 employees.
FocusCorporate procurement agents, US enterprise spend management
vs CodeSpar: US-only, enterprise-focused. Mandate concept is interesting - our equivalent is the HMAC mandate layer. No LatAm presence, no workflow orchestration beyond spend control.
Basis Theory$33M · Series B
ModelPCI-compliant vault + tokenization for agentic payment flows. Largest round in the identity layer.
Revenue~$5-8M ARR estimated (50+ employees, enterprise pricing, PCI-compliant SaaS).
FocusSecurity/compliance layer. Leads Agentic Commerce Consortium (20+ members including Rye, Firmly, Forter).
vs CodeSpar: Complementary. Basis Theory solves PCI vault. We solve orchestration. A company using CodeSpar for the Complete Loop could use Basis Theory for PCI compliance on top. No geographic conflict.
Natural$9.8M seed
ModelPayment infrastructure for AI agents. API-first, designed for agent-to-merchant transactions.
RevenuePre-revenue. Developer preview phase. ~25 employees.
FocusNarrow: agent-to-merchant payment execution. US and EU rails only.
vs CodeSpar: Potentially a future partner. They provide the US/EU payment rail, we provide the LatAm commerce context wrapped in MCP tools. No overlap in geographic focus.
Payman$13.8M · Visa + Coinbase
ModelInverse model: AI agents pay humans for completed tasks. Human-in-the-loop verification.
RevenueEarly revenue. Transaction-based model on gig task completions. ~30 employees.
FocusGig economy + AI orchestration hybrid. Agent-to-human payment flows.
vs CodeSpar: Completely different model. Payman routes money from agents to humans. CodeSpar routes commerce operations from agents to LatAm APIs. No direct overlap.

Layer 5: Checkout Execution - where CodeSpar's Complete Loop lives

This is where the value chain gets interesting. Given that an agent has the intent to transact and the identity/mandate to do so, how does it actually execute the full commerce workflow? Most companies in this layer focus on the purchase moment. We focus on the complete lifecycle.

Rye$14.2M · a16z + Justin Kan
ModelUniversal checkout API. Agent sends product URL + payment, Rye executes the purchase on any merchant.
Revenue~$1-3M ARR estimated (per-transaction fees, ~40 employees, in production with paying customers).
TractionIn production, ~90% reliability target, Shopify + Amazon coverage
vs CodeSpar: Rye is 'Stripe for agents' in the US. Stops at the purchase moment. Does not issue invoices, book shipping, send notifications, or register in ERPs. CodeSpar starts where Rye stops. In LatAm, the purchase is 30% of the workflow. The other 70% is fiscal, logistics, and compliance.
Firmly$5.2M · FJ Labs + Mastercard
Model'Buy Now' abstraction layer unified across ACP, UCP, AP2, MCP. Powers Perplexity checkout.
RevenuePre-revenue to early revenue. Per-transaction model. ~20 employees.
TractionBest Buy as merchant. Launched Firmly Connect (Mar 2026). Growing protocol-agnostic positioning.
vs CodeSpar: The most strategically interesting comparison. Firmly does for protocols what CodeSpar does for tools. They abstract the commerce protocol layer so agents don't care which protocol the merchant uses. We abstract the commerce infrastructure layer so agents don't care which APIs the country uses. No LatAm, no workflow orchestration.
Composio$50M+ · Series A · Sequoia
ModelGeneric tool integration platform. 400+ app integrations for AI agents. Horizontal play.
Revenue~$3-5M ARR estimated (~120 employees, usage-based pricing from $29/mo, enterprise tier).
TractionLargest round in adjacent space. Growing rapidly. Broad but shallow integrations.
vs CodeSpar: Composio integrates everything superficially. We integrate LatAm commerce deeply. They have a Pix 'integration' that generates a QR code. We have a Pix integration that generates a QR code, validates the CPF/CNPJ, issues the NF-e, handles SEFAZ rejection codes, and reconciles the payment in the ERP. Depth beats breadth in regulated markets.

The gap matrix

Here is what each major player does and does not do. This table is the clearest way to see the white space.

CapabilityCodeSparRyeFirmlyComposioSkyfireNekudaNatural
MCP-native (50+ servers)~
Payment orchestration (multi-rail)~
Electronic invoicing (NF-e/CFDI)
Logistics (shipping labels, tracking)
WhatsApp notifications~
ERP integration (Omie, Bind, Colppy)~
Complete Loop (6 APIs, one call)
Latin America (BR, MX, AR, CO)
Protocol-agnostic routing
Fiscal compliance (92 doc types)
Marketplace split payments

The last two rows tell the story. Every company in this map operates in the US or Europe. Not one covers Latin America. Not one handles Brazilian fiscal compliance. Not because they have decided it is too small, but because they do not have the domain knowledge to build for it.

Why Composio's '~' marks matter

Composio has integrations marked as “~” (partial) for WhatsApp, ERP, and payment orchestration. They integrate with these services in the same way they integrate with 400+ other services: a thin API wrapper that exposes basic CRUD operations. Their WhatsApp integration sends messages. Ours sends messages, receives replies, maintains conversational commerce sessions, generates Pix QR codes inline, and triggers the Complete Loop on payment confirmation. Their Omie integration creates contacts and invoices. Ours creates contacts, invoices, receivables, payables, maps chart of accounts, handles CFOP codes, and reconciles across multi-country ERPs. Breadth is not depth. In regulated markets, depth wins.

The white space: zero players in LatAm commerce for agents

This is the strategic insight that defines our positioning. Of 207+ companies building agentic commerce infrastructure, zero operate in Latin America. This is not a niche gap. This is a structural white space in a $2+ trillion market.

The LatAm digital payments market

The numbers are large enough to build a category-defining company:

R$17.4TPix transactions in Brazil (2025)
$2.7TSPEI transactions in Mexico (2025)
$2T+LatAm digital payments projected (2027)

Brazil alone represents one of the largest digital payment markets in the world. Pix, launched in November 2020, processed more transactions in 2025 than all US debit card transactions combined. 76% of Brazilian adults use Pix. It is not a niche payment method; it is the default financial infrastructure for 215 million people.

Mexico's SPEI (Sistema de Pagos Electronicos Interbancarios) processes $2.7 trillion annually. Colombia's PSE handles $180 billion. Argentina's Transferencias 3.0 is growing rapidly. Each of these is a real-time payment rail with unique API requirements, fiscal compliance obligations, and regulatory frameworks.

Agent commerce TAM

Estimating the agent commerce TAM requires making assumptions about adoption rates, which are inherently uncertain. Here is our framework:

Base case (conservative): If 2% of LatAm digital commerce volume is agent-initiated by 2028, the agent commerce TAM is $40 billion. At a 1-2% infrastructure take rate, that is $400M-$800M in addressable infrastructure revenue.

Bull case: If agent-initiated commerce follows the trajectory of mobile commerce (which went from 2% to 35% of e-commerce in 5 years), agent commerce could represent 10-15% of LatAm digital commerce by 2030: $200-300 billion. At a 1-2% infrastructure take rate, that is $2-6 billion.

Our operating assumption: We plan for the base case and build for the bull case. The infrastructure investment required is the same either way. The upside is the difference between a $500M company and a $5B company.

Competitive moats: what is defensible and what is not

Not every category in this landscape has a moat. Some of the most-funded categories are the least defensible. Understanding moat dynamics is essential for anyone building or investing in this space.

Strong moats

Payment rails (Layer 3): Defensible because of regulatory licensing, banking partnerships, and compliance requirements. Skyfire needs crypto licenses. Nekuda needs card program manager agreements. Natural needs payment processor relationships. These take 6-18 months to establish and cannot be replicated quickly. Geographic moats are even stronger: a US payment infrastructure company cannot add Pix support by hiring one engineer. It requires Banco Central registration, a Brazilian banking partner, NF-e certification, and SEFAZ integration with 27 state authorities.

Trust & security (Layer 7): Defensible because of data network effects. Forter has processed billions of transactions and has a proprietary fraud model trained on that data. A new entrant starts with zero transaction history. This moat compounds over time: the more transactions you process, the better your fraud model, the more merchants trust you, the more transactions you process.

Regional commerce infrastructure (cross-layer): Defensible because of domain expertise accumulation. Building for LatAm commerce requires understanding 92 types of fiscal documents, 50+ carriers, country-specific ERP systems, regulatory frameworks that change quarterly, and payment rails that US developers have never heard of. This knowledge cannot be acquired from a documentation page. It is accumulated through years of building, failing, and iterating in the region.

Weak moats

Generic tool integration (Layer 2): Composio has 400+ integrations, but each one is a thin API wrapper. Any well-funded competitor can build the same wrappers in 6 months. The integration itself is not defensible; the depth of the integration is. Composio is vulnerable to vertical players (like us) that go deeper in specific domains.

Protocol abstraction: Firmly abstracts ACP, UCP, and MCP into a unified checkout. This is valuable today when protocols are fragmented. If protocols consolidate (as we predict they will by 2027), the abstraction layer becomes unnecessary. Firmly's moat is temporal, not structural.

Card issuance (Layer 4): Lithic, Marqeta, and Unit issue virtual cards to agents. This is a valuable capability but not a defensible one. Card issuance is a regulated commodity: multiple providers offer the same capability with similar pricing. The moat is in what you do with the card, not in issuing it.

CodeSpar's positioning

We are not competing with Composio. Composio integrates 400+ services superficially. We integrate 50+ LatAm commerce services deeply. We are not competing with Stripe. Stripe provides payment rails. We provide commerce orchestration on top of local payment rails. We are not competing with Rye. Rye executes US checkout. We execute the LatAm Complete Loop.

We are competing with nobody.

This sounds like a positioning cliche, but it is literally true. Of 207 companies mapped in this space, zero operate in Latin America. Zero handle NF-e. Zero connect to Pix programmatically for agent-initiated transactions. Zero integrate with Correios, Jadlog, or Loggi for agent-initiated shipping. Zero connect to Omie, ContaAzul, or Bling for agent-initiated ERP registration.

Our positioning is: LatAm commerce infrastructure for AI agents. Not generic tools. Not US checkout. Not protocol compliance. Commerce infrastructure: the concrete, messy, regulated, domain-specific capabilities that agents need to participate in the LatAm economy.

Why not just add LatAm to an existing platform?

This is the most common objection we hear from investors: “Why wouldn't Composio or Rye just add LatAm support?” The answer is that LatAm commerce is not an “add.” It is a rebuild.

Rye's checkout API assumes the transaction ends at the purchase. In Brazil, the transaction begins at the purchase: you must issue a NF-e, communicate with SEFAZ, handle 800+ possible rejection codes, book shipping with a carrier that may or may not deliver to the destination CEP, send a WhatsApp notification (not an email - 78% of Brazilians prefer WhatsApp for transactional communication), and register the transaction in a local ERP. None of Rye's infrastructure handles this. Adding it would require rebuilding 70% of their stack for a market they do not understand.

Composio could add Pix and Omie integrations tomorrow. But “Pix integration” without SEFAZ integration is useless for compliant commerce. “Omie integration” without understanding CFOP codes, NCM classifications, and DIFAL calculations is worse than useless - it creates fiscal liability. Depth is not additive. You cannot bolt it on. You build it from the foundation or you do not have it.

Why LatAm is the best market for agent commerce

This is a strong opinion. We believe Latin America is not just a viable market for agent commerce infrastructure - it is the best market. Better than the US. Better than Europe. Better than Southeast Asia. Here is why.

1. High mobile, low legacy

LatAm skipped the desktop internet era. Brazil has 165 million smartphone users and only 80 million desktop internet users. WhatsApp is the primary business communication channel. Pix is the primary payment method. The entire commerce stack is mobile-first and API-first. This is the exact environment where AI agents thrive: APIs, not web forms. Messaging, not email. Real-time payments, not batch processing.

In the US, agent commerce has to integrate with legacy systems: EDI for supply chain, ACH for payments (2-3 day settlement), USPS/UPS/FedEx with APIs designed in 2005. In LatAm, the infrastructure is newer, more API-friendly, and more amenable to autonomous agent interaction.

2. Regulatory complexity = moat

Brazil has the most complex fiscal system in the world (1,501 hours/year on tax compliance, World Bank). Mexico has CFDI requirements. Argentina has Factura Electronica. Colombia has electronic invoicing mandates. Each country has its own regulatory framework, its own fiscal document types, its own tax authority APIs.

In the US, this complexity does not exist. A US company issues an invoice by emailing a PDF. A Brazilian company issues an invoice by sending an XML document to SEFAZ, receiving a signed authorization response with a 44-digit access key, storing the XML for 5 years, and making the DANFE (printed version) available to the customer. The complexity is not optional. It is legally required.

This regulatory complexity is our moat. A US competitor cannot add LatAm fiscal compliance as a feature. It requires years of domain expertise, relationships with tax authorities, and understanding of edge cases that are not documented anywhere. Every month we operate, our moat gets deeper.

3. Massive unserved SMB market

Brazil has 21 million registered businesses (IBGE). 99% are small or medium enterprises. According to Sebrae, 68% of these SMBs have been fined for fiscal errors. 78% use WhatsApp for business communication. 89% process payments via Pix. And zero of them have access to AI agent commerce infrastructure.

In the US, SMBs have access to Shopify, Stripe, Square, QuickBooks, ShipStation, and dozens of other tools that automate commerce workflows. In Brazil, SMBs use WhatsApp, spreadsheets, and manual data entry. The gap between US SMB tooling and LatAm SMB tooling is enormous, and AI agents are the fastest way to close it.

4. Real-time payment rails are agent-ready

Pix settles in 10 seconds, 24/7/365. SPEI settles in under a minute. These are real-time, API-accessible, no-fee payment rails that are perfectly designed for autonomous agent transactions. Compare this to ACH (2-3 business days, batch processing, no weekends) or wire transfers ($25 fee, manual initiation). LatAm payment infrastructure is more advanced than US payment infrastructure for agent use cases.

5. WhatsApp is the universal interface

197 million WhatsApp users in Brazil. 78% of consumers have purchased via WhatsApp. WhatsApp is the interface that agents should use to communicate with LatAm customers, not email (18% open rate), not SMS (limited to 160 characters), not a mobile app (requires download and retention). WhatsApp is already installed, already used for commerce, and already has business APIs (via Z-API, Twilio, Take Blip). An AI agent that communicates via WhatsApp is not asking the customer to adopt new behavior. It is meeting them where they already are.

What the map tells us

The category has been validated by capital, not by use. $70M+ has been invested. Most of it is pre-revenue or very early revenue. The market belief is real; the market reality is still forming. This is typical for infrastructure categories: the investment comes before the revenue because infrastructure takes time to build and adopt.

The layers are separating cleanly. Identity (Skyfire, Nekuda), vault/PCI (Basis Theory), checkout execution (Rye, Firmly), fraud (Forter). Each is becoming its own company. The stack is disaggregating. This disaggregation creates opportunities for specialized players at each layer and integration plays (like ours) that connect the layers.

The geographic gap is structural, not accidental. It will not be closed quickly by a US competitor adding a few integrations. Latin American fiscal complexity, payment rail diversity, and logistical fragmentation create a barrier to entry that compounds over time. The longer we are in production, the wider the gap becomes. Every SEFAZ rejection code we handle, every Correios API quirk we work around, every Zoop split payment edge case we solve makes our infrastructure harder to replicate.

The winner in LatAm agent commerce will not be a US company expanding south. It will be a company born in the region, building for the region, with the domain expertise that only comes from operating in the region. We believe that company is CodeSpar.

Predictions: the next 36 months

Based on the patterns in this landscape, the funding trajectories, the regulatory environment, and the technology maturity curves, we make seven specific, falsifiable predictions for the agentic commerce space through 2028.

2026-2028 predictions

1. By 2028, 30% of LatAm SMB transactions will be agent-initiated. The economics are irresistible. Minimum wage in Brazil is ~$300/month. An agent costs $29-99/month. For 21M+ Brazilian SMBs that currently handle invoicing, payment collection, shipping, and customer notification manually via WhatsApp and spreadsheets, agents are not a productivity tool. They are a replacement for a full-time administrative employee at 10-30% of the cost. Pix settles instantly, WhatsApp is already the commerce channel, and the workflow is highly deterministic. This is not speculation; this is arithmetic.

2. MCP will be the de facto standard for agent-to-tool communication by mid-2027. It already has the largest ecosystem (25,000+ community servers). Google A2A will complement it for agent-to-agent flows. The commerce-specific protocols (ACP, UCP, AP2) will become domain extensions on top of MCP, not replacements. Firmly's protocol abstraction layer validates this trajectory.

3. Three to five agentic commerce companies will reach $100M+ ARR by 2028. Most likely candidates: a checkout execution company (Rye or its acquirer), an identity/trust company (Forter is already close), a tooling platform (Composio or LangChain), and a geographic specialist. Infrastructure companies that capture per-transaction revenue will scale fastest because their revenue compounds with GMV.

4. Stripe will acquire at least one agentic-native company by Q2 2027. Most likely target: Rye (checkout execution fits perfectly into Stripe's stack). Second most likely: a trust/identity company to build agent wallets on Stripe's rails. Stripe's $14B revenue and $95B valuation give it acquisition capacity that no startup can match. The Agent Toolkit launch was the signal; the acquisition will be the move.

5. LatAm will be the first region where agent commerce exceeds 10% of total digital commerce. Not the US. Not Europe. LatAm. Because the preconditions are uniquely strong: instant payments (Pix), conversational commerce culture (WhatsApp at 97% penetration), massive SMB base underserved by technology, and labor economics that favor agent adoption over hiring.

6. The trust and fraud layer will produce the next billion-dollar company in this space. As agent transaction volume grows, distinguishing legitimate AI agents from fraudulent bots becomes critical infrastructure. Forter's 2025 report shows 85% increase in bot-initiated fraud. The company that builds the definitive agent trust protocol will be to agent commerce what Cloudflare is to web traffic: invisible, indispensable, and in the path of every transaction.

7. By 2029, “agentic commerce” will just be called “commerce.” The prefix will disappear as agent-mediated transactions become the default for B2B procurement, recurring consumer purchases, price comparison, and multi-vendor orders. The companies that built the infrastructure will be invisible and indispensable, like Stripe is today for online payments.

Strategic advice: if you are building in this space

We will close with unsolicited advice for founders, investors, and product leaders evaluating the agentic commerce landscape. This comes from mapping 207+ companies, analyzing $2.4B+ in capital deployment, and building in the space ourselves.

For founders

Pick a layer and a geography. Do not try to be horizontal. The US market is crowded in every layer. Generic, US-focused, single-layer companies will be commoditized or acquired within 24 months. The winning strategy for new entrants is geographic specialization (LatAm, Southeast Asia, MENA) or deep vertical specialization within a layer (healthcare agent payments, real estate agent transactions).

Build on MCP. Do not bet on a proprietary protocol. The protocol wars are effectively over at the developer layer. MCP has the ecosystem. Build your commerce tools as MCP servers. If ACP or UCP wins in specific domains, you can add support later. But your developer adoption engine should be MCP-native from day one.

Capture per-transaction revenue, not just SaaS fees. The companies that will reach $100M+ ARR fastest are the ones with transaction-based revenue that scales with GMV. SaaS fees plateau. Transaction fees compound. If your product touches the money flow, capture a percentage of every transaction. This is why Stripe is worth $95B and protocol companies raise $5M seed rounds.

If you are building in LatAm: The window is open but will not stay open forever. Right now, zero companies serve this market. In 18 months, there will be 3-5. In 36 months, the early movers will be entrenched. The infrastructure play is the most defensible. The application play is faster to revenue but less defensible. Domain knowledge is the real moat, not technology. Hire domain experts, not just engineers.

For investors

The geographic arbitrage play is wide open. Of 207+ companies, zero operate in LatAm, zero in Southeast Asia (680M population), zero in Africa (1.4B population). The US has $2.4B in funding and 150+ companies. LatAm has $340B in e-commerce, $2.1T in digital payments, and zero funded agent commerce infrastructure companies. The opportunity-to-competition ratio is extreme.

Bet on execution layers, not protocol layers. Protocols will be free and open. Execution layers capture revenue. The best risk-adjusted investments are companies that own the transaction execution point in specific markets. Look at the gap matrix: the most funded categories (payments & identity) are the most crowded. The least funded capabilities (fiscal compliance, LatAm logistics, ERP integration) are the most defensible. Fund the capabilities that are hard to build, not the capabilities that have the most buzz.

Cross-layer companies in specific geographies are the category kings. Stripe became a $95B company by integrating payments, identity, fraud, and merchant tools across a single platform. The equivalent play in agent commerce is integrating protocol tooling, payments, checkout, and merchant enablement in a specific geography. This is the CodeSpar thesis.

For enterprise leaders

Start with the Complete Loop, not with “we need an AI strategy.” Start with “we have 200 orders per day and the post-sale workflow takes 14 hours per week.” Agent commerce is not a technology decision. It is an operations decision. The technology is ready. The question is whether your operations team is ready to let an agent handle the deterministic 95% so humans can focus on the exceptional 5%.

If you operate in LatAm, do not wait for US companies to add support. The structural barriers to entry mean US agent commerce companies will take 2-3 years to build adequate LatAm coverage, if they do at all. By then, the LatAm-native infrastructure will be entrenched. Evaluate LatAm-specific solutions now.

We built this map to understand where we fit. We share it because the whole space moves faster when the players understand each other clearly. And because the empty cells in this map are not just our opportunity. They are an invitation to everyone who sees what we see: the LatAm agent commerce market is real, it is large, and it is waiting for someone to build the infrastructure.

Sources: CB Insights Q1 2026 agentic commerce report, agenticcommercemap.com (207+ companies as of April 2026), Crunchbase and PitchBook funding data, Stripe 2024 10-K filing, Marqeta 2024 10-K, npm registry download stats, LinkedIn headcount data, company pricing pages, Forter's 2025 agent fraud report, Rye investor presentations, Firmly press releases, Skyfire/Nekuda/Payman/Composio/LangChain funding announcements, Banco Central do Brasil Pix statistics, Americas Market Intelligence LatAm Digital Payments 2025, ABCOMM e-commerce reports, IBGE/Sebrae SMB data, World Bank Doing Business data, Meta WhatsApp Business data 2025. TAM figures from the Agentic Payments Deep Research report, Statista Digital Payments LatAm 2026, and internal CodeSpar analysis. Revenue estimates marked with ~ are inferred from headcount, pricing, and market signals. Contact fabiano@codespar.dev for the full internal analysis and source workbook.